What Are Italy’s Champions League Chances?

Yesterday the draw was made for the group stages of the Champions League. Carlo Garganese analyses the Italian teams’ chances in the first phase.

GROUP A: Chelsea, Roma, Bordeaux, CFR Cluj

GROUP B: Inter, Werder Bremen, Panathinaikos, Anorthosis Famagusta

GROUP F: Lyon, Bayern Munich, Steaua, Fiorentina

GROUP H: Real Madrid, Juventus, Zenit, BATE

Roma

The Giallorossi have reached the quarter finals for the last two seasons running, and they will be confident of getting through to at least the first knockout round this time around.

Chelsea are undoubtedly the big guns, and indeed they are favourites with most bookmakers to win the whole competition. The Blues have strengthened this summer by signing the likes of Deco and Bosignwa, while Real Madrid star Robinho could join too before the end of the transfer window. With Luiz Felipe Scolari also now in charge, Chelsea should finish top of the group.

Bordeaux should not be underestimated, and indeed they gave Lyon a run for their money in the French championship last season, finishing second. With former Inter and Napoli defender Laurent Blanc as their coach, they will be told everything they need to know about Serie A football. They may not possess the big names such as Jean Tigana and Alain Giresse from their legendary 1980s outfit, but the likes of Fernando Cavenaghi and on-loan Milan midfielder Yoann Gourcuff must be watched carefully.

As for CFR Cluj, I do not want to sound insular, but I must confess that I know very little about the Romanian champions from last season. With six Argentines, including former Inter man Sixto Peralta, and three Brazilians in their squad, technical quality is unlikely to be in short supply. Nevertheless if Cluj were to qualify from this group it would be an almighty shock.

Prediction: Roma to finish second behind Chelsea.

Inter

Lady luck shone brightly on Inter as they were handed, what on paper, is by far the easiest group of all the Italian teams.

Werder Bremen will be the most dangerous outfit in the group after they finished second in the Bundesliga last season, even if they were a full 10 points adrift of champions Bayern Munich. The club’s star man is undoubtedly Brazilian playmaker Diego, but there is also quality in the form of German internationals Torsten Frings, Per Mertesacker and Clemens Fritz.

Panathinaikos sneaked into the Champions League after finishing third in the Greek League, before winning a four-team playoff. Despite possessing Austrian star Andreas Ivanschitz, and new signing from Arsenal Gilberto Silva, the Greeks are unlikely to worry Inter too much, even if away trips to Athens are never easy.

The group minnows are Anorthosis Famagusta, who made history by becoming the first Cypriot team ever to qualify for the group stages of the Champions League. Players to look out for are former Real Madrid winger Savio and ex-Roma centre back Traianos Dellas. Anyhow, Inter will expect six points from their two games against Anorthosis.

Prediction: Inter to win the group comfortably, followed by Bremen.

Fiorentina

One of the most equally balanced groups in the first phase is Group F, where all four teams are likely to take points off one another.

Lyon, who are seeded first, continued their domestic dominance by winning their seventh straight French championship last season. Les Gones have superb quality in midfield, with the likes of Jeremy Toulalan, Juninho, Kim Kallstrom, and new signing Ederson. They also have one of the best young prospects in Europe up-front in the form of Karim Benzema. Defensively though they could be a little suspect, and this is something Fiorentina will need to take advantage of.

Bayern Munich return to the Champions League after annihilating the Bundesliga last season, and they will now be hoping to reproduce this form in the Champions League. There are goals in the team up-front in Lukas Podolski, Miroslav Klose and former Viola, Luca Toni, even if the latter two had poor Euro 2008’s. Star man is undoubtedly the brilliant Franck Ribery, who would walk into any team in Europe, while new signings such as Massimo Oddo, Tim Borowski and Breno have added depth.

Steaua Bucharest will be written off by a number of critics as the whipping boys of the group, but those who under-estimate them will be in for a rude awakening. Two-times reigning champions of Romania, and possessing a number of Euro 2008 stars such as Mirel Radoi and Dorin Goian, Steaua will cause trouble for teams at home, and Fiorentina would be wise to take note of their 3-1 pre-season win over Roma.

Prediction: Almost impossible to predict the outcome of this group. Steaua will pick up points at home but I still don’t expect them to qualify. Two from the other three.

Juventus



If Fiorentina thought their group was hard, then they should spare a thought for Juventus who were drawn with Spanish champions Real Madrid and UEFA Cup holders Zenit St Petersburg.

Madrid have performed poorly in this competition in recent years, and were outclassed by Roma last season. The capital giants have made few changes in pre-season, with Rafael Van der Vaart their only real notable acquisition. I don't see them as Champions League winners this campaign, but they remain a formidable outfit and will surely be favourites to top this group. Intriguingly, Fabio Cannavaro returns to face his old club.

Zenit were a revelation last season, as they romped to UEFA Cup glory, memorably thrashing Bayern Munich in the semi finals along the way. The Russians are a real danger to Juventus, and have some excellent quality with Pavel Pogrebnyak, Anatoliy Tymoschuk, and Euro 2008 stars Aleksandr Anyukov and Konstantin Zyryanov. However, they are having a poor domestic campaign this time around, and are way off the pace in sixth place. They may also lose star man Andrei Arshavin before the end of the transfer window.

The final team of the group are BATE Borisov, who quite conceivably could finish the first phase with 0 points next to their name. They may have won the Belarus championship three years on the trot, but they are likely to be on the end of a number of hidings against Madrid, Juve and Zenit.

Prediction: Real Madrid to come first, with Juventus to just pip Zenit into second. It will not be easy for the Bianconeri.